Gridiron Challenge: Week 15 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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It's go time.

Ah, Izzy Mandelbaum. Great "Seinfeld" character, played by the legendary Lloyd Bridges, even though he appeared in only two so-so episodes from the subpar post-Larry David seasons. What words of wisdom from good ol' Izzy; he'd have made a superb Gridiron Challenge player. (Just don't ask him to do any heavy lifting, OK?)

Izzy's words couldn't ring more true. With three weeks remaining in our season, it's indeed go time … as in, go for broke. Don't fret quite so much about salaries. Maximizing matchups is becoming increasingly critical the closer we get to the finish line, even if it's at the expense of losing a player you locked in cheaply weeks (or months) ago.

Here's an example from last season: Tom Brady, who managed 20-plus points in each of his first 11 games, averaged 27.5. But as the Patriots' season wound down, and the team had already locked itself into playoff position, Brady fell short of that 20-point benchmark twice in his final five games, averaging 19.4 during that span. He was still extremely productive; imagine a less potent player -- say, a guy who averages 15 or so -- shedding 30 percent of his point-earning potential in December!

Want an example from this season? How about Kurt Warner? He's averaging 19.7 points per game for the season, but his Cardinals already clinched a playoff spot. They can't finish with a 16-0 record -- which was the primary thing keeping Brady in the lineup each week in December 2007 -- and Arizona's playoff seed might be determined by as early as Sunday. If it's the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC, which seems rather likely, Arizona won't have a bye in the first week of the playoffs, meaning Warner almost certainly will rest in Week 17. He might not play all four quarters in Week 16, either. I'm not saying I'd look to shed Warner yet, not with the 20th-ranked Minnesota pass defense as his next matchup, but the time to let him go for a stronger one-week play is approaching fast.

That goes for you, too, Brandon Jacobs and Chris Johnson owners. Jacobs' knee is obviously not 100 percent, and because the Giants could lock up a first-round bye as soon as this week, he'll almost assuredly rest for at least a portion -- if not all -- of Week 17, especially with such talented players behind him on the depth chart. Johnson, meanwhile, is on pace for 273 carries, and with LenDale White and even Quinton Ganther there to ease some of the burden, he should rest a little once the Titans wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That, again, might happen as soon as this week.

Don't risk the poor matchups for your studs, either. I have Calvin Johnson listed below in my "no chance they'll be in my GC lineup" section for a reason: There's no chance I'll start him facing the Colts' Cover 2 defense, no matter how cheaply he's locked into my lineup. I'll take three individual soft matchups instead of a cheap player with one terrible one and two decent ones every time.

That's the name of the game at this point, and so little time remains for you to make your move. Like Izzy once said, "it's go time."

Bull market: Invest now

Sammy Morris, RB, Patriots (4.3 price tag): The time for long-term investing is coming to a close, but if you're seeking a potential two-week cheap buy-in to allow you to spend elsewhere, Morris might fit the bill. His Week 15 matchup couldn't be more obvious; he'll battle the 30th-ranked Oakland run defense, one that has allowed three 100-yard games in the past six weeks. But the Week 16 game against the Cardinals has me intrigued, or at least will if he does enough to impress this week. Arizona, in case you missed it, has allowed 10 total touchdowns to opposing running backs the past four weeks combined, mostly because the team has done such a poor job neutralizing them as receiving threats. Not to say that Morris represents an elite pass-catcher, but he's not inept, either. He can stun a defense when it isn't paying attention.

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs (5.9): His remaining schedule couldn't be much more fantasy-friendly, with games against the Chargers, Dolphins and Bengals, who rank 30th, 21st and 22nd defending the pass this season. Plus, if you watched Thigpen perform in Denver this past week, surely you weren't overwhelmed, but he didn't turn the ball over once, even though he had to tangle with those talented, playmaking cornerbacks. If he's not the risk factor he was shaping up to be in the two games prior, Thigpen brings overwhelming upside to the table, especially with the level of chemistry he's displaying with Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe lately. When you put him on your roster, these were the very matchups you were waiting for. They're here.

Keep 'em in your portfolio

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (7.0 price tag): "Ooooh, way to go out on a limb, Cockcroft." I can hear it now. But it might surprise you to learn that one Manning owner told me he swore off the Colts quarterback for all eternity -- or at least it seemed that way -- after his five-point dud in Week 13. Folks, let's not be silly, this is Peyton Manning, owner of six games of 18 or more GC points the past seven weeks. He'll play the Lions this week and the slumping Jaguars next week. He'll feast on those defenses like a Who from Whoville feasts on roast beast.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs (4.8): "Ooooh, way to go out on a limb, Cockcroft, Part 2." I can hear it now and can even see the reviews trashing the sequel even more harshly than the original. Head coach Herm Edwards might complain that Gonzalez is eating up all the targets in Kansas City, but I know I'm not, as a Gonzalez owner in this game. Do you really think Tyler Thigpen is concerned about what Edwards says, considering that he's playing for a starting gig next season, and Edwards might not even be in Kansas City next season? I don't. I see this matchup against a Chargers team that has allowed by far the most GC points to tight ends (10.5 per game) and can't help but drool.

One-week ponies: Week 15

Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers (@ATL, 4.5 price tag): Color me impressed. Bryant might shape up as a boom-or-bust candidate in your eyes, but in mine, he's much more the former than the latter, as I've seen him develop the past several weeks. Here's another thing: Of his four 100-yard receiving games, three have come on the road. Jeff Garcia is averaging six more passing attempts per game on the road than at home because the Buccaneers are finding themselves playing from behind in those situations. NFC South teams have tended to romp at home this season, and that means a nice, early lead for Atlanta and plenty of passing opportunities for Garcia. And when he does -- as he did a week ago -- who will he be looking for? You guessed it: Bryant.

John Carlson, TE, Seahawks (@STL, 3.3): If you're not hopping on the Tony Gonzalez bandwagon I've been riding for a few weeks now, honestly, my second-favorite tight end choice for the week is Carlson. Part of it is his cheap price tag, and the rest is that he'll face one of the poorest defenses in football in a game that by all rights might be high-scoring. Carlson has back-to-back weeks with double-digit fantasy points, totaling 16 targets, and if you're wondering about the Rams, well, keep in mind they were scorched for 107 yards and a score by Dustin Keller as recently as Week 10.

Indianapolis Colts defense/special teams (DET, 4.9): There almost always will be a defensive special on my list, and almost always it will face one of three teams that week: the Lions, Rams or Bengals. In Indianapolis' case, this defense is an extraordinary bargain bet because of the matchup, coupled with its 53 GC points combined the past two weeks. Only one thing bugs me about the Colts: They're priced 0.6 higher than the Week 14 bargain I put on my roster, the Arizona Cardinals.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (GB, 5.9): No matter how you feel about this guy as a runner, it's undeniable that he has done an exceptional job catching passes out of the backfield this season. Understand that he's the NFL's leader in receiving yards among running backs (462), and his 50 receptions trail only Matt Forte (53). That assures Jones-Drew won't become invisible in the event his team slips behind on the scoreboard early, minimizing any risk. This week he'll battle the 27th-ranked Packers run defense, a team so terribly cold in that facet of the game it has been scorched for eight rushing scores the past three weeks.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (NYG, 7.7): Call this one a hunch, because on paper, facing the eighth-ranked Giants pass defense, Romo might not strike you as a smart start. But the Cowboys are fighting for their playoff lives, and they know how much of a statement they can make by beating the suddenly vulnerable Giants. Romo has averaged 255.4 passing yards with 11 touchdowns in five career games against New York (playoffs included), and if you're troubled by his eight interceptions in those contests, remember that they don't count against you in the GC. With Marion Barber perhaps not at full strength, Romo surely will be Dallas' offensive leader in this prime-time contest.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles (CLE, 6.8): Another obvious one, but the guy has racked up an NFL-most 69 GC points the past two weeks, including the steamrolling of a talented Giants front seven in Week 14. He gets a plum matchup against the Browns, ranked 28th against the run and one that allowed a combined 267 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns to the Titans' two-headed rushing attack last week. Westbrook claims he's fully healthy, and having watched him closely the past two weeks, I agree with him.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (DEN, 6.5): Yup, ride 'em hot streaks. Williams was second only to Westbrook in GC points the past two weeks combined (62), and like Westbrook, it was a case of his rising above the challenging matchup in Week 14. But I think his Week 15 matchup is more favorable than Westbrook's. Granted, the Broncos rank 26th against the run, two spots higher than Cleveland, but they have served up two 100-yard efforts and six rushing scores in the past four weeks. The only thing that keeps him slightly behind Westbrook in my book: Jonathan Stewart, who should be enough of a factor to snap Williams' streak of 30-point weeks.

No chance they'll be in my GC lineup

Marion Barber, Matt Cassel, Braylon Edwards, David Garrard, Tim Hightower, Brandon Jacobs, Calvin Johnson, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis, Marshawn Lynch, Derrick Mason, Le'Ron McClain, Heath Miller, Randy Moss, Willie Parker, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Hines Ward and both defenses in the Giants-Cowboys game.

Tristan's Week 15 lineup

Total points: 1,588.
Percentage: 97.0. Overall rank: 6,629rd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 272nd.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBKurt WarnerCardinals2566.97.40.5
QBPeyton ManningColts2207.07.20.2
RBBrian WestbrookEagles1886.86.8--
RBAdrian PetersonVikings2016.66.6--
WRDwayne BoweChiefs1144.64.6--
WRReggie WayneColts1174.54.5--
TETony GonzalezChiefs1234.84.90.1
KNeil RackersCardinals1063.94.00.1
D/STIndianapolis Colts1324.94.9--
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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